Publications
Space-based monitoring of penguin diet links sea ice, food webs, and population change
Youngflesh, C., C. Che-Castaldo, M. Schwaller, S. Serbin, M. Polito, and H.J. Lynch. 2026. Space-based monitoring of links sea ice, food webs, and population change. Current Biology 36:1-8.
Demographic rates of Adélie penguins from Approximate Bayesian Computation and time-lapse cameras
Flynn, C.M, I. Juarez, T. Hart, and H.J. Lynch. 2026. Demographic state space models parameterized by time series and camera traps. Ecological Modelling 514:111448.
Revisiting “Penguins in the anthropause: Covid-19 closures drive gentoo penguin movement among breeding colonies”
Flynn, C.M, M. Wethington, M. Hilton, G.V. Clucas, T. Hart, G.R.W. Humphries, C. Nichol, and H.J. Lynch. 2026. Revisiting ‘Penguins in the anthropause: COVID-19 closures drive gentoo penguin movement among breeding colonies. Biological Conservation 315: 111715.
Record phenological responses to climate change in three sympatric penguin species
Martinez, I.J., A. Kacelnik, F.M. Jones, J. Hinke, M.J. Dunn, A. Raya Rey, H.J. Lynch, K. Owen, and T. Hart. 2026. Record phenological responses to climate change in three sympatric penguin species. Journal of Animal Ecology 95: 455-469. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.70201.
Temporal and spatial equivalence in demographic responses of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) to environmental change
Sen, B., C. Che-Castaldo, M.A. LaRue, K.M. Krumhardt, L. Landrum, M.M. Holland, H.J. Lynch, C. Barbraud, and S. Jenouvrier. Temporal and spatial equivalence in demographic responses of emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) to environmental change. 2025. In press at Journal of Animal Ecology.
Pygoscelis penguins prefer different oceanographic and terrestrial habitats during the austral summer
Gallagher, K., R. Herman, K. Walton, M.S. Dinniman, and H.J. Lynch. 2025. Pygoscelis penguins prefer different oceanographic and terrestrial habitats during the austral summer. Ecosphere 16:e70091.
The influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the bacterial microbiome of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) in their natural environment
Kaczvinsky, C., H. Levy, S. Preston, C. Youngflesh, G. Clucas, H.J. Lynch, A.L. Smith, and T. Hart. The influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the bacterial microbiome of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) in their natural environment. 2024. Scientific Reports 14:17933.
Update on the abundance and distribution of Macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) in the Antarctic Peninsula region
Hallet, M., and H.J. Lynch. 2024. Update on the abundance and distribution of Macaroni Penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) in the Antarctic Peninsula region. Polar Biology 47: 607-615.
Quantifying krill connectivity across the west Antarctic Peninsula and its role in large-scale Pygoscelis penguin population dynamics
Gallagher, K., M. Dinniman, and H.J. Lynch. 2023. Quantifying Antarctic krill connectivity across the West Antarctic Peninsula and its role in large-scale Pygoscelis penguin population dynamics. Scientific Reports 13: 12072.
Whole genome sequencing reveals stepping stone dispersal buffered against founder effects in a range expanding seabird
Herman, R.W., G. Clucas, J. Younger, J. Bates, B. Robinson, S. Reddy, J. Stepanuk, K. O’Brien, K. Veeramah, and H.J. Lynch. 2024. Whole genome sequencing reveals stepping stone dispersal buffered against founder effects in a range expanding seabird. Molecular Ecology 00:e17282.
Penguindex: A Living Planet Index for Pygoscelis Species Penguins
Talis, Emma, C. Che-Castaldo, T. Hart, L. McCrae, and H.J. Lynch. 2023. Penguindex: A biodiversity indicator for Pygoscelis spp. penguins identifies key eras of population change. Polar Biology, Online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-023-03148-2
Adelie penguins north and east of the Adelie gap continue to thrive in the face of dramatic declines
Wethington, M., C. Flynn, A. Borowicz, and H.J. Lynch. 2023. Adélie penguins north and east of the ‘Adélie gap’ continue to thrive in the face of dramatic declines elsewhere in the Antarctic Peninsula region. Scientific Reports 13: 2525.
Spatio-temporal transferability of environmentally dependent population models
Sen, B., C. Che-Castaldo, K. Krumhardt, L. Landrum, M.M. Holland, M.A. LaRue, M.C. Long, S. Jenouvrier, and H.J. Lynch. 2023. Spatio-temporal transferability of environmentally-dependent population models: Insights from the intrinsic predictabilities of Adelie penguin abundance time series. Ecological Indicators 150: 110239.
Variability, skipped breeding, and heavy-tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird
Talis, E., C. Che-Castaldo, B. Sen, K. Krumhardt, and H.J. Lynch. Variability, skipped breeding, and heavy-tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird. Journal of Animal Ecology 91: 2437-2450.
Age-structured model reveals prolonged immigration is key for colony establishment in gentoo penguins
Herman, R.W, and H.J. Lynch. 2022. Age-structured model reveals prolonged immigration is key for colony establishment in Gentoo Penguins. In Press at Ornithological Applications.
Lack of Synchronized Breeding Success in a Seabird Community: Extreme Events, Niche Separation, and Environmental Variability
Youngflesh, C., Y. Li, H.J. Lynch, K. Delord, C. Barbraud, R. Ji, and S. Jenouvrier. 2021. In press at Oikos.
Large-Scale Assessment of Intra- and Inter-Annual Breeding Success Using a Remote Camera Network
Youngflesh, C., F.M. Jones, H.J. Lynch, J. Arthur, Z. Rockaiova, H. Torsey, and T. Hart. 2020. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation 7(1): 97-108.
Sea Ice Predicts Long-Term Trends in Adélie Penguin Population Growth, But Not Annual Fluctuations: Results From a Range-Wide Multi-Scale Analysis
Iles, D.A., H.J. Lynch, R. Ji, C. Barbraud, K. Delord, and S. Jenouvrier. 2020. Global Change Biology 26: 3788-3798.
When the “Selfish Herd” Becomes the “Frozen Herd”: Spatial Dynamics and Population Persistence in a Colonial Seabird
McDowall, P., and H.J. Lynch. 2019. Ecology 100(10): c02823.
Predicting the Future Is Hard and Other Lessons From a Population Time Series Data Science Competition
Humphries, G.R.W., C. Che-Castaldo, P. J. Bull, G. Lipstein, A. Ravia, B. Carrión, T. Bolton, A. Ganguly, H. J. Lynch. 2018. Ecological Informatics 48: 1-11.
Rethinking ‘Normal’: The Role of Stochasticity in the Phenology of a Synchronously Breeding Seabird
Youngflesh, C., S. Jenouvrier, J.T. Hinke, L. DuBois, J. St. Leger, W.Z. Trivelpiece, S.G. Trivelpiece, and H.J. Lynch. 2018. Journal of Animal Ecology 87(3): 682-690.
Pan-Antarctic Analysis Aggregating Spatial Estimates of Adélie Penguin Abundance Reveals Robust Dynamics Despite Stochastic Noise
Che-Castaldo, C., S. Jenouvrier, C. Youngflesh, K. Shoemaker, G. Humphries, P. McDowall, L. Landrum, M. Holland, Y. Li, R. Ji, H.J. Lynch. 2017. Nature Communications 8: 832.
Circumpolar Analysis of the Adélie Penguin Reveals the Importance of Environmental Variability in Phenological Mismatch
Youngflesh, C., S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, R. Ji, D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, C. Barbraud, K. Delord, K. M. Dugger, L. M. Emmerson, W. R. Fraser, J. T. Hinke, P. O’B. Lyver, S. Olmastroni, C. J. Southwell, S. G. Trivelpiece, W. Z. Trivelpiece, H. J. Lynch. 2017. Ecology 98(4): 940-951.
Asymmetric Response of Adélie Penguins to Antarctic Climate Change
Cimino, M.A., H. J. Lynch, V.S. Saba, and M.J. Oliver. 2016. Scientific Reports 6:28785.
Emigration in Emperor Penguins: Implications for Interpretation of Long-Term Studies
LaRue, M., G. Kooyman, H.J. Lynch, and P. Fretwell. 2015. Ecography 38:114-120.
How Climate Extremes - Not Means - Define a Species’ Geographic Range Boundary Via a Demographic Tipping Point
Lynch, H.J., M. Rhainds, J. Calabrese, S. Cantrell, C. Cosner, and W.F. Fagan. 2014. Ecological Monographs 84:131-149.
The Gentoo Penguin
Lynch, H.J. 2013. In P.D. Boersma and P.G. Borboroglu (eds) Penguins: Natural History and Conservation. University of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington.
Spatially Integrated Assessment Reveals Widespread Changes in Penguin Populations on the Antarctic Peninsula
Lynch, H.J., R. Naveen, P.N. Trathan and W.F. Fagan. 2012. Ecology 93(6): 1367-1377.
Differential Advancement of Breeding Phenology in Response to Climate May Alter Staggered Breeding Among Sympatric Pygoscelid Penguins
Lynch, H.J., W.F. Fagan, R. Naveen, S.G. Trivelpiece, and W.Z. Trivelpiece. 2012. Marine Ecology Progress Series 454: 135-145.
Stable Isotopes Reveal Regional Heterogeneity in the Pre-Breeding Distribution and Diets of Sympatrically Breeding Pygoscelis spp. Penguins
Polito, M.J., H.J. Lynch, R. Naveen, and S.D. Emslie. 2011. Marine Ecology Progress Series 421: 265-277.
Population Trends and Reproductive Success at a Frequently Visited Penguin Colony on the Western Antarctic Peninsula
Lynch, H.J., W.F. Fagan, and R. Naveen. 2010. Polar Biology 33(4): 493-503.
Timing of Clutch Initiation in Pygoscelis Penguins on the Antarctic Peninsula: Towards an Improved Understanding of Off-Peak Census Correction Factors
Lynch, H.J., W.F. Fagan, R. Naveen, S.G. Trivelpiece, and W.Z. Trivelpiece. 2009. CCAMLR Science 16:149-165.